Cyclone BANSI has gotten even stronger! Satellite estimates from the U.S. Navy now put winds at 150 knots (173 mph) (1-min)-- a Cat 5 on both the USA and Oz scales. Meteo France's estimate of 120 knots (10-min) is very similar, and they classify this as a "very intense tropical cyclone." Meteo France's latest track shows BANSI has wobbled N. While the cyclone should start moving SE soon, that N wobble has increased the threat to Rodrigues (tiny red island) down the road-- and the latest Meteo France forecast brings the cyclone dangerously close to that island. Interestingly, the latest (00Z) Euro and GFS runs also suggest a close brush with Rodrigues. The threat to Maurice (purple) and La Réunion (orange) is probably diminishing-- but given the great power of this cyclone, everyone in the Mascarene Islands should continue watch this.
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (BANSI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 17.6S 56.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 56.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 17.7S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 17.8S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.9S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.3S 59.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.3S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.1S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 28.4S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BANSI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 153 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SYMMETRIC SIGNATURE WITH FEEDER BANDS SURROUNDING A 17-NM
DIAMETER EYE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS
BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL REPORTING
AGENCIES. ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS
ALONG WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO INCREASED TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. TC 05S
IS TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). SLOW AND/OR POSSIBLE QUASI-STATIONARY
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALLOWING FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 150 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS, TC BANSI IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
DECREASES. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
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